NOIDA (CoinChapter.com) — Bitcoin price recently attempted to break its all-time high (ATH) set near $73,700, but the rally met strong resistance, halting the uptrend at around $73,562 on Oct. 30, 2024. The rejection resulted in Bitcoin going into bearish mode, with the token dropping $68,000 on Nov. 4.
Moreover, traders anticipate heightened volatility in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, as market uncertainty typically intensifies around such major political events. While some expect a potential rebound, cautious sentiment prevails, especially given Bitcoin’s failure to secure a new ATH.
The bearish market outlook remains in focus, adding another layer of risk to the market environment.
Analyst Perspectives and Bearish Indicators
Independent market analyst Alan Santana highlighted a pattern in Bitcoin’s price movements, noting similarities between the 2021 double-top formation and the current setup in 2024.
An analyst noted that BTC might be repeating a 2021 fractal that had bearish repurcussions.In both instances, Bitcoin reached a high with rising volume, followed by a second peak marked by declining volume, signaling potential exhaustion of bullish momentum.
Santana observed that the recent peak exhibited low market participation, with whale dominance and minimal retail involvement. This added a layer of risk, as retail participation is typically a sign of broader market interest.
An analyst predicted a 10% move for Bitcoin in either direction post the US elections.Adding to this outlook, Daan Crypto Trades offered a predictive analysis, projecting potential volatility in response to the U.S. election outcome. Daan highlighted that Bitcoin’s price could swing by at least 10%, either up or down, depending on the election result.
Additional bearish cues include a reversal in the “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” from bullish to neutral, indicating a shift in market sentiment that often precedes a price pullback.
Moreover, Bitcoin spot net buying volumes on exchanges have not accelerated, with net selling volumes suggesting that holders are offloading their positions, leading to potential downward pressure on prices, Andre Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise said in a research note.
Notably, Bitcoin whales transferred a significant amount of BTC (29,000 BTC) to exchanges, usually a precursor to selling, which can increase selling pressure, especially if whales aim to liquidate their holdings.
Bulls Struggling To Hold BTC Above $67,000
Meanwhile, the BTC USD pair broke through several support levels in its six day long bear run that saw the token drop nearly 8% to reach a daily low near $67,200 on Nov. 4. The bulls managed to check the downtrend and keep BTC price above $67,000.
A Harris win might result in BTC price dumping more of its gains, which could force the token to the 100-day EMA (blue) support near $63,980.
BTCUSD daily price chart with RSI. Source: TradingviewFailure of the EMA support might result in Bitcoin price testing the support near $59,600 before recovering.
On the other hand, a recovery from here would involve BTC price facing resistance near the $71,650 price level. Breaking and consolidating above it might help the token rally to a new all-time high enar near $77,800.
The RSI for BTC remained neutral, with a score of 50.67 on the daily charts.
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