NOIDA (CoinChapter.com)—Bitcoin’s bullish momentum continues, consolidating around $90,000 after a robust uptrend since Donald Trump emerged as the winner of the US elections. The flagship crypto has remained strong, though some analysts and indicators suggest a bearish outlook for Bitcoin prices.
Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy, has emerged as a vocal supporter of Bitcoin’s price trajectory. According to Saylor, Bitcoin is on track to hit $100,000 before the end of 2024, citing a favorable regulatory environment driven by Donald Trump’s presidential election win.
Saylor’s reasoning is rooted in his belief that the political shift will bring clarity and support for digital assets in the United States. “I’m planning the $100,000 party, and I think we’ll break through in November or December,” he remarked recently.
However, as markets look toward this bullish milestone, several bearish indicators raise questions about the sustainability of Bitcoin’s current rally. From on-chain data to technical metrics, signs of a potential short-term correction are emerging, which could test the conviction of even the most optimistic traders.
Overbought RSI Suggests A Drop, But Not To $60K
First on the list of bearish cues is Bitcoin’s overbought RSI. With a score of 75.92 on the daily charts, the overbought momentum indicator could induce a selling spree, as overbought RSI levels often precede a trend reversal.
BTC USD daily price chart with RSI. Source: TradingviewEarlier this year, in March, the RSI reached similar levels, resulting in the BTC USD pair breaking its uptrend and falling nearly 19% at one time. If the token repeats its historical pattern, Bitcoin price could end up testing the support level near $73,800.
Though not close to $60,000, a sudden drop would likely precipitate a long squeeze, increasing selling pressure against the token. Theoretically, that could exacerbate the bearish cues against Bitcoin and force a test of price levels close to $60,000.
Analyst Warnings Signal a Brewing Correction
Recent market analysis from prominent traders highlights critical bearish signals for Bitcoin. In a Nov. 10 post, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out that the Bitcoin futures market appears overheated, with heightened open interest and rising funding rates.
However, Ju has since retracted his prediction, saying that he was not “implying a bear market, just a correction.“
Bitcoin OI-weighted funding rate. Source: CoinglassYet elevated funding rates indicate that the market is heavily skewed toward long positions, which are often a precursor to liquidation events.
Another critical metric, open interest, has also surged, reflecting speculative trading activity. Historically, such conditions have led to corrective moves as leverage builds unsustainably. Moreover, a correction here, even if it is minor, could induce panic selling among long position holders as they scramble to pare losses.
An analyst highlighted a bearish divergence in Bitcoin charts.Furthermore, crypto trader Shotokhan noted bearish divergences in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and open interest data. Divergences between price action and RSI often signal weakening momentum, increasing the likelihood of a price reversal.
Similarly, Bitcoin’s consolidation in a tight range over the past six days has raised questions about its ability to sustain upward momentum without a significant retracement.
Another analyst, going by the username Dream Chaser JTK on X, predicted a 15% correction that could send Bitcoin to $77,000 before resuming an upward trend toward $110,000. Considering these signals, a pullback to $85,000 or even $77,000 appears increasingly likely in the short term.
On-Chain Trends Point to Mounting Risks
Meanwhile, on-chain data further corroborates Bitcoin’s bearish outlook. A closer look at Glassnode metrics reveals a decline in holdings among small—and mid-sized investors.
Bitcoin supply held by addresses with different balances. Source: GlassnodeAddresses holding 10–100 BTC and 100–1,000 BTC have reduced their balances significantly over the past month. This trend suggests profit-taking among smaller market participants, often a bearish signal, as it indicates waning confidence in the rally’s sustainability.
In contrast, addresses holding 10,000–100,000 BTC have increased their positions, signaling accumulation by whales. While this accumulation suggests confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, it also introduces short-term volatility.
Large holders could potentially unload positions to capitalize on Bitcoin’s elevated price levels, leading to sudden corrections.
Bitcoin netflow to and from exchanges.The net transfer volume to exchanges adds nuance to the analysis. Recent red bars, representing Bitcoin outflows from exchanges, suggest reduced immediate sell pressure as investors appear to move funds into cold wallets for long-term holding.
While this could be considered bullish, it follows a period of green bars (net inflows), which signaled earlier selling pressure. This shift could indicate that some investors have already capitalized on profits, leaving the market more vulnerable to the other bearish factors in play.
Coupled with weakening retail participation, these exchange inflows amplify the risk of a short-term correction.
If these bearish indicators materialize, Bitcoin’s price could drop to test key support levels at $85,000 and potentially as low as $77,000. This correction would align with the technical and on-chain signals currently flashing caution to market participants.
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